For years, high school pitchers have been told that more exposure is the surest path to opportunity. The advice is simple: attend as many showcases as possible, get in front of scouts and recruiters, and let the radar gun do the talking. On the surface, it makes sense—more looks should equal more chances.

But what if the data shows the opposite? What if each additional showcase, instead of building your future, is quietly working against it?

That’s exactly the paradox uncovered in a 2025 study by Kriz and colleagues. In analyzing elite pitchers’ showcase histories, they found that those who limited appearances to fewer than ten and began slightly later in their development were significantly more likely to reach Major League Baseball. The finding runs counter to conventional wisdom—and forces players, parents, and coaches to rethink the true cost of “exposure.”

The Primary Question

The central question of the study was straightforward: Does the number and timing of high school showcase appearances affect the likelihood of reaching MLB?

Beneath that question lies a broader tension in amateur baseball. Showcases exist to create visibility, yet they demand max-effort pitching under evaluative pressure. Do more appearances create a wider path to opportunity, or do they pile on unnecessary stress during years that should be centered on development?

What the Study Found

The findings were clear and consistent:

• Overexposure cut MLB odds in half. Elite pitchers who participated in 10 or more showcases had 50% lower odds of reaching MLB compared to those with fewer than 10 appearances [OR = 0.50; 95% CI, 0.29–0.86; P = .012].
  
  
• MLB pitchers averaged fewer showcases. Those who reached MLB attended an average of 3.45 showcases, while non-MLB pitchers averaged 4.59 [P = .001].
  
  
• The vast majority stayed under 10. 92.4% of MLB pitchers had fewer than 10 showcase appearances, compared to 84.0% of non-MLB pitchers [P = .002].
  
  
• Moderate exposure was linked to less success. Only 7.3% of MLB pitchers attended 10–19 showcases, while 15.3% of non-MLB pitchers did [P = .002].
  
  
• Later entry correlated with MLB attainment. MLB pitchers were, on average, 0.3 years older at their first showcase [16.49 vs. 16.19 years; P = .003].
  
  

Taken together, these results paint a simple picture: restraint, not saturation, was the marker of long-term success.

Why This Matters

The implications are profound. For athletes and families, the showcase circuit is often positioned as a mandatory rite of passage. More appearances feel like progress; fewer feel like missed opportunity. Yet the data suggest that restraint doesn’t close doors—it opens them.

Pitchers who limited showcases likely preserved physical resources, delayed overexposure, and devoted more time to actual development. Conversely, those who accumulated 10 or more appearances may have traded short-term visibility for long-term sustainability.

This doesn’t mean showcases should be avoided entirely. They clearly remain a critical piece of the recruiting process. But they should be purposeful, selective, and limited.

Practical Application

From a practical standpoint, this study reframes how players and coaches should approach the showcase calendar:

1. Fewer than 10 is the benchmark. Participation beyond this threshold was consistently linked with reduced odds of reaching MLB.
   
   
2. Timing matters. Entering the circuit later—even by a few months—was associated with better outcomes. This suggests athletes should wait until development, velocity, and readiness align before showcasing.
   
   
3. Quality over quantity. Each appearance should serve a defined purpose—whether targeting a specific school, exposure event, or draft opportunity. Random accumulation of appearances is not supported by the data.
   
   

The Showcase Paradox

The paradox is clear: showcases are designed to increase opportunity, yet excessive participation appears to limit it. What seems like ambition may, in practice, be overexposure.

For families navigating the pressure of recruitment, this study provides clarity. Exposure must be earned, not accumulated. The best outcomes don’t come from showcasing everywhere—you get them by showcasing strategically.

‍

The Kriz et al. (2025) study delivers a much-needed reality check to the baseball community. More showcases do not mean more opportunity. In fact, pitchers who limited appearances to fewer than 10 and delayed their first showcase were significantly more likely to reach MLB.

For athletes chasing long-term success, the lesson is simple: focus on development first, then showcase when the timing is right. Scarcity, not saturation, is the path that leads to the big leagues.

References

Kriz, P. K., et al. (2025). Effect of High School Showcase Exposures and Timing of Ulnar Collateral Ligament Tear on Professional Baseball Careers in Elite Pitchers.